Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
